Pseudo-3D is a rising star, keeping barriers to adoption low
by Erica Driver and Sam Driver.
As analysts covering work-related use of immersive technologies, we have long wrestled with terminology to describe the trends we are tracking and put some bounds around an emerging software market. We aren’t the only ones; naming conventions continue to be a popular topic of discussion at meetings and conferences (see the Sept. 28, 2009 ThinkBalm blog article, “To cross the chasm, we must close the language gap.”) The question always seems to come back to, “Do we call it virtual worlds?”
Our answer has consistently been no. We use the term Immersive Internet to describe the big picture. 3D virtual worlds are, of course, an important part of the Immersive Internet—but they are not the whole picture. A glaring example is the adoption of pseudo-3D virtual event platforms from companies like InXpo, ON24, and Unisfair. Enterprises are utilizing virtual event platforms for marketing events, trade shows, training sessions, and more—all use cases that are also targeted by providers of 3D immersive software.
The name game is a red herring
The more important issue is, “What do the trends in adoption of immersive technology mean?” Our recent research findings shed light on our position to include both 3D and pseudo-3D in our coverage of enterprise immersive software:
- Look where the money is. In our January 19, 2010 ThinkBalm report, The Enterprise Immersive Software Decision-Making Guide, we sized the enterprise immersive software market at $50M USD in 2009. A substantial portion of this number revenue was from pseudo-3D virtual events.
- Production deployments tell a story. All together, the virtual event platform vendors hosted several thousand virtual events in 2009—InXpo alone delivered more than 1,000 500 and ON24 delivered more than 300. We don’t see any evidence of the pseudo-3D virtual events market slowing down.
- Customers are lumping it all together. The customers who buy immersive technology are placing little distinction between 3D and pseudo-3D (depending on the use case, of course). They want to solve their business problem; they don’t care about the nitty gritty of how it gets done. Many times we have talked with decision makers who are looking at both 3D and pseudo-3D solutions for bringing a few hundred people together for a virtual off-site event.
Pseudo-3D faces fewer barriers to adoption than 3D
When pseudo-3D wins out over a 3D virtual world (e.g., Second Life or ReactionGrid), 3D collaboration environment (e.g., ProtonMedia or Teleplace), or 3D immersive learning environment (e.g., ARI PowerU or SAIC’s Forterra OLIVE), it’s often because the barriers to adoption were lower (see table). (We covered barriers to adoption, and springboards for overcoming them, in depth in the September 23, 2009, ThinkBalm report, Crossing the Chasm, One Implementation at a Time.)
| Barriers to adoption of 3D immersive technology | Effect these barriers have on pseudo-3D immersive technology adoption |
Technology pre-requisites:
|
Pseudo-3D technology runs in a Web browser, with no plugin required. High-end graphics cards and computer processors are not needed.Computer headsets are not necessary (though may be desirable) because users are typically not speaking to each other via voice. Audio from presentations can utilize built-in computer speakers. |
| Technology pre-requisite: high-bandwidth Internet connection | While rich 3D graphics are not being rendered in pseudo-3D environments, video streams are common and can be bandwidth hogs in locations where multiple people are watching video from separate computers simultaneously. |
| Firewall prevents users from being able to interact with others or the environment. | Because the software runs in a Web browser, the needed firewall port is already open. |
The user experience:
|
The user experience is familiar to anyone who’s used a browser and attended a web conference. People are accustomed to using keyboards and mice to interact with the Web. |
Our take: pseudo-3D is on the rise
- Market forces support an inclusive definition of immersive technology. Some immersive environments are virtual worlds, but an increasing number are not. They are 3D or pseudo-3D collaboration tools, learning environments, or event platforms. We anticipate that over time, the lines between 3D and pseudo-3D will blur. 3D technologies are constantly pushing the limits of scalability and vendors are starting to include measurement tools, while pseudo-3D vendors are going after training use cases and always-on, persistent environments.
- Mainstream adoption will follow the path of least resistance. Tremendous power is built into 3D environments, especially when they are combined with communication and collaboration tools. But technology adoption has to be simple for the end user. A “DIY” toolbox or a super-rich 3D environment may not be the path of least resistance. If pseudo-3D continues to outpace 3D in ease of adoption, this is where the customers will go.
- The technology has to be browser-based—or as easy to use and manage as a browser. Our research has illuminated a number of barriers to adoption of 3D environments that could be circumvented with a simpler, more familiar user interface and streamlined deployment options. Browser technology minimizes installation issues, firewall port issues, and a number of other practical problems. On top of that, browser-based immersive technology fits in with the way people are already working; business applications are increasingly web-based, as are collaboration tools and office productivity software.
© 2010 ThinkBalm. All rights reserved.
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I defined 3D and pseudo-3D immersive environments in the January 19, 2010 ThinkBalm report, “The Enterprise Immersive Software Decision-Making Guide.” Here’s the definition: “3D environments use three-dimensional representations of geometric data to create immersive environments and experiences in which avatars can move and interact. Pseudo-3D environments assemble 2D images of 3D scenes (typically using Adobe Flash) to create the illusion that the user is in a 3D environment. Users do not have avatars that can navigate through the environment. By limiting graphical rendering, pseudo-3D environments offer scalability orders of magnitude higher than 3D environments.”
Erica and Sam – we appreciate your thoughtful analysis in this report. It very important for would-be buyers to realize that this market isn’t “3D or bust.” If it is, then early adopters won’t take the incremental steps to help them discover the value of Immersive Internet technologies in their respective companies.
Pseudo 3D is really hot right now, thanks to the need for lower-cost trade events and collaborations. In addition, we are pleased to see many major companies initiating full-3D pilots — with narrowly focused trials and short-term tangible goals.
Dear Erica, dear Sam,
Agreed with a stronger market demand for 3D accessible platforms, noticed in the past few months.
“ACCESSIBILITY” versus “LEVEL OF ENGAGEMENT & SENSE OF PRESENCE” is an interesting debate.
As you know, 3DXplorer can be considered as:
1) The most accessible platform among the full 3D immersive solutions. (Almost none of the barriers on the left column of the above table apply to 3DXplorer, despite it’s a full 3D immersive platform)
OR
2) The most immersive and interactive solution among the easily accessible platforms
We can only confirm the growth of the Virtual Events market, and the fact that more customers come to us from pseudo-3D platforms, or from 2D platforms looking for more “engaging” events and more “sense of presence”.
Last month, during Virtual Edge Summit in Santa Clara, 3DXplorer was the only full 3D platform enabling the live broadcast of the event for remote attendees, just in a browser, with no download required. See
http://www.virtualedge.org/forum/topics/companies-launching-several
Last week, Cloud Slam 10, ( http://www.cloudslam10.com ) with thousands of attendees, was held on 3DXplorer, for the sponsors exhibition hall and the VIP networking lounge. Sponsors included IBM, BMC Software, Wipro,…
Nevertheless, we’ll continue hearing about the debate “ACCESSIBILITY” versus “LEVEL OF ENGAGEMENT & SENSE OF PRESENCE”.
The ProtonMedia team: I like the way you put that: it isn’t 3D or bust. The business decision makers we talk to want to solve a problem. They don’t care about the technology nitty gritty. It all cones down to use case. For large meetings and conferences and some forms of training, pseudo-3D works well. For other use cases (e.g., learning simulations, 3D data visualization, remote facility operation, 3D is more of a requirement.
Darius, you raise a good point, which is that accessibility is important. Accessibility is high when users don’t have to download any software to get into the immersive important. 3DXplorer fits this criterion, as long as the user has Java enabled on their machine.
A big difference between 3D environments and pseudo-3D is scalability. While we have seen the scalability of 3D environments increase in the past couple of years, the number of users who can be in the same virtual space at the same time (e.g., attending a keynote presentation) ranges from 20 to several hundred, depending on the particular technology. In contrast, pseudo-3D immersive environments can scale to thousands or even tens of thousands.
Thanks for taking the time to comment.
From an Immersive Simulations perspective, I have seen some distinction by business sector – military, healthcare, utilities, manufacturing and Oil & Gas are more demanding of higher fidelity 3D whereas other sectors such as retail, FS, leisure, govt etc can live with 2.5d (P3D?).
Drilling down into that for rationale points to Darius’ distinction between accessibility and levels of presence/immersion. Where higher fidelity 3D is required is in the main because the 3D context itself is particularly important to the learning experience. When supporting a users ability to mentally practice an event, high fidelity 3D will be less important when it the user is mentally rehearsing completing a mortgage application, and more important when mentally rehearsing house to house searches in Iraq.
Those sectors maybe a bit more forgiving on browser delivery, but it is becoming more of a requirement, and I agree, its necessary for widespread adoption. It maybe ok to use VBS2 in a classroom of 16 marines, but clients want to make that experience open to whole battalions before they reach theatre.
Darius, you raise a good point, which is that accessibility is important. Accessibility is high when users don’t have to download any software to get into the immersive important. 3DXplorer fits this criterion, as long as the user has Java enabled on their machine.
A big difference between 3D environments and pseudo-3D is scalability. While we have seen the scalability of 3D environments increase in the past couple of years, the number of users who can be in the same virtual space at the same time (e.g., attending a keynote presentation) ranges from 20 to several hundred, depending on the particular technology. In contrast, pseudo-3D immersive environments can scale to thousands or even tens of thousands.
Thanks for taking the time to comment.